:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
03/0554Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 03/1626Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (06 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 156
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  012/014-017/020-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/20
Minor Storm           15/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/25