:Product: 0204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/1638Z from Region 3576 (S16E72). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 04/1933Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
04/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1654Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (07
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 170
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  017/020-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/20