:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
06/0312Z from Region 3575 (S36W78). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (07 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1104 km/s at 06/0820Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 05/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0135Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet levels on
day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Feb).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (07 Feb) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (08 Feb, 09
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    60/45/45
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     25/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 190
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 180/175/175
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  009/008-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20