:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
07/0331Z from Region 3575 (S37W90). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (08 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 546 km/s at 07/0202Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0241Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (08 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    60/45/45
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     25/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 188
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 180/175/170
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  006/005-011/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/50