:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
09/1314Z from Region 3575 (S37, L=178). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (10 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/0906Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/0916Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 113 pfu at 09/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons are expected
to cross threshold on day one (10 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on
day two (11 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three
(12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    25/10/10
Proton     99/60/25
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 183
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 178/178/180
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/010-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/45