:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
10/2307Z from Region 3576 (S16W09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 11/1703Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 11/0156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
11/0313Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 134 pfu at 11/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), active to
major storm levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 180
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 182/180/180
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  012/018-025/038-017/023

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/70/60