:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
12/0348Z from Region 3576 (S17W37). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14
Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 705 km/s at 12/0646Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
11/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2257Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 81 pfu at 12/1550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (13 Feb), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet levels on day three
(15 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (13 Feb),
have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (14 Feb) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     99/50/25
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 208
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 190/185/185
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  007/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  028/040-017/024-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor Storm           40/25/05
Major-severe storm    25/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    75/65/25