:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/0759Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 13/0155Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1338Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 117 pfu at 13/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (16
Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (14 Feb) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (15
Feb, 16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/15/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 195
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 192/192/195
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 161

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  020/025-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    70/25/20