:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1707Z from Region 3576 (S16W82). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb,
17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 15/0208Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
15/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1759Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 14/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18
Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    55/55/35
Class X    15/15/05
Proton     30/30/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 178
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 175/170/165
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20