:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
16/0653Z from Region 3576 (S16W98). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 15/2350Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
16/1143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/0703Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 16/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Feb, 19
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (18 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    60/35/35
Class X    15/05/05
Proton     15/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 169
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 165/160/160
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/25