:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/2209Z from Region 3576 (S16W98). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 16/2318Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
17/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0224Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0515Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 170
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 165/162/160
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/005-007/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25