:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0405Z from Region 3583 (N09W67). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb,
21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 17/2337Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 17/2217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/0315Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Feb, 20 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 157
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  007/008-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20