:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
19/0940Z from Region 3590 (N18E61). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb,
22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 18/2317Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/1910Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 152
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  008/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20