:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/0217Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on day three (24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 21/1527Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/2303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/1525Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    30/35/40
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 170
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 170/175/180
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20