:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X6 event observed at
22/2234Z from Region 3590 (N18E26). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25
Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 368 km/s at 22/2315Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0944Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 173
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 175/175/175
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  006/005-015/020-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor Storm           01/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/35/20