:Product: 0225RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Feb 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 25/1722Z from Region 3590 (N18W13). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 25/0358Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1925Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/0734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb). III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb Class M 70/70/70 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Feb 181 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 010/012-009/010-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20