:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 26/1624Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 25/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/0008Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 172
Predicted   27 Feb-29 Feb 170/170/175
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  014/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10