:Product: 0228RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Feb 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 28/0909Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached an estimated peak of 470 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0956Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 128 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar). III. Event probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 180 Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 007/008-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/20