:Product: 0229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/0000Z from Region 3590 (N18W65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 439 km/s at 28/2145Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (01 Mar, 02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    50/50/25
Class X    10/10/01
Proton     15/15/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Feb 164
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 160/155/160
90 Day Mean        29 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  008/008-009/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20