:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/0125Z from Region 3590 (N18W80). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (02 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 01/0342Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0206Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Mar, 03 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    50/25/25
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     15/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 153
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 150/150/155
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  009/012-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/25