:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
02/1258Z from Region 3595 (N20W35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar,
05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 578 km/s at 02/0719Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 152
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 150/155/150
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  010/012-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/25/10