:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/1729Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 03/0528Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 03/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 03/1513Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    25/25/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 146
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  013/014-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    30/10/10