:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
05/1125Z from Region 3598 (S11W88). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (06 Mar) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (07 Mar,
08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 04/2237Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 04/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/2147Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    25/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 142
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25