:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/2351Z from Region 3595 (N21W74). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 06/0421Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 06/0102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0205Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (08 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 136
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  007/008-014/015-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           05/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/50/60