:Product: 0307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
07/0618Z from Region 3599 (S12W02). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 07/2043Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1828Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/1814Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 137
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  014/015-015/020-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/20
Minor Storm           20/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/60/30