:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/2335Z from Region 3604 (N08E43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 08/0803Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0212Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 129
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 127/125/127
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  015/020-007/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/25
Minor Storm           25/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/30/35