:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/2126Z from Region 3599 (S12W15). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 08/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2310Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 135
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  007/010-009/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/35/30