:Product: 0310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
10/1213Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar,
13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 09/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/1434Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 738 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Mar, 12 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 127
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 125/125/122
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  009/012-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/05
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    35/30/15