:Product: 0311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
11/0850Z from Region 3599 (S12W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 10/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/0729Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1417 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 127
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/25