:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1135Z from Region 3599 (S12W67). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 12/0616Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/2259Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 761 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    15/15/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 131
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/35