:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/2208Z from Region 3607 (S18E44). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 13/0049Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
13/0613Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 300 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 128
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  010/014-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/35/25