:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0610Z from Region 3599 (S13W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (16 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (17
Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 15/0336Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2203Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 15/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 215 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are
expected to cross threshold on day one (16 Mar) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     75/20/01
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 129
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/15