:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/1635Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 516 km/s at 16/0524Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 16/0635Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 248 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     40/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 144
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 145/150/160
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/15