:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/2155Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar,
20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 16/2219Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 16/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 219 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 151
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 155/160/162
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/005-006/005-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/50