:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar,
21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
18/2007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 355 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 177
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 170/170/168
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/005-014/018-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/65/65