:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0229Z from Region 3615 (S12E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 19/1652Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 18/2244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
18/2252Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 169
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 172/175/172
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  014/010-015/018-008/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/65/30