:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
20/0736Z from Region 3615 (S12E39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 20/0024Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
20/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/0441Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (22 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (23
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 176
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 178/176/174
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  015/020-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/05
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/30/10