:Product: 0321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/2255Z from Region 3615 (S12E39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar,
24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 21/1517Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 21/0241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 21/1243Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet levels
on day two (23 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 197
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 180/178/174
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  012/015-005/005-011/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/05/35
Minor Storm           25/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/10/45