:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/1358Z from Region 3614 (N17E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 22/0702Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2148Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (24 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 198
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 195/190/188
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  005/005-011/016-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/35/45
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/45/60