:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
23/0133Z from Region 3614 (N17W07). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25
Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 23/1826Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 23/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 23/2012Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 955 pfu at 23/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (26 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (24 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two (25 Mar) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    45/45/45
Proton     99/70/50
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 209
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 210/210/210
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  019/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  017/025-031/045-020/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/35
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    35/50/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/01/10
Minor Storm           15/10/20
Major-severe storm    79/90/65