:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/0218Z from Region 3615 (S13W14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26
Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 887 km/s at 24/2035Z. Total
IMF reached 33 nT at 24/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -26 nT at 24/1510Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 724 pfu at 24/1235Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (25 Mar), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     99/70/50
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 195
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 200/205/210
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  025/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  034/070
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  031/050-020/022-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/10
Minor Storm           35/25/01
Major-severe storm    50/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/10/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    90/65/20