:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
25/0644Z from Region 3615 (S13W27). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27
Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 909 km/s at 25/0750Z. Total IMF
reached 30 nT at 24/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 25/0840Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 62 pfu at 24/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (28
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Mar), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (27 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     99/50/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 190
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 195/200/200
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  043/093
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  023/039
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  020/022-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/20