:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1330Z from Region 3615 (S13W41). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28
Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 852 km/s at 26/0503Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/0324Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 26/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Mar, 29
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (28 Mar). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 178
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  008/008-005/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/20/30