:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2158Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 27/0957Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/0814Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/0623Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 27/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    75/75/40
Class X    25/25/10
Proton     30/30/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 175
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 180/175/170
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  005/005-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/25