:Product: 0328RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 28/2056Z from Region 3615 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (31 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 865 km/s at 27/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 241 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Mar). III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar Class M 75/75/05 Class X 25/25/01 Proton 30/10/05 PCAF Red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Mar 173 Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 175/170/155 90 Day Mean 28 Mar 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 007/008-008/008-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/30