:Product: 0329RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Mar 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 29/0230Z from Region 3615 (S13W81). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (01 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 28/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Mar). III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr Class M 75/75/05 Class X 25/25/01 Proton 15/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Mar 167 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 165/150/145 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 008/008-009/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/30/30