:Product: 0330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
30/0212Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 432 km/s at 30/2043Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
30/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/1848Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 391 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar,
01 Apr, 02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    65/01/01
Class X    15/01/01
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 140
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 135/125/120
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  009/010-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/25