:Product: 0331RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/2116Z from old Region 3515. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 31/1154Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 30/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
31/0012Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 233 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 134
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  008/010-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/30