:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
01/0132Z from Region 3625 (N13W78). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 653 km/s at 01/0252Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 31/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0242Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (03 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 125
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 124/126/130
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  008/008-009/012-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/20