:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 02/2147Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/0253Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 112
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 112/114/115
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  014/018-014/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/25